So much of what TechFutures has been about is getting people to understand that the future is not something that can be predicted, but rather something quite unpredictable, something that requires us to remain flexible and open to change at a moment’s notice.

Jamais Cascio of WorldChanging has graciously allowed us to republish one of his recent essays here as today’s post. I’ve chosen to put just an excerpt in our forum, with a link to the rest of the essay at WorldChanging. I encourage you to read it, and to add your thoughts either here or at WorldChanging directly.

While you’re at WorldChanging, be sure to read Sara Rich’s article “A Bright Idea” as well–Northeast Ohio has at least two reasons to adopt this approach here: one, it just makes good sense from an energy use perspective; two, one of the largest producers of these types of bulbs is located right here in our backyard…

Now, on to Jamais essay:

The Open Future
by Jamais Cascio

The future is not written in stone, but neither is it unbounded. Our actions, our choices shape the options we’ll have in the days and years to come. We can, with all too little difficulty, make decisions that call into being an inescapable chain of events. But if we try, we can also make decisions that expand our opportunities, and push out the boundaries of tomorrow.

If there is a common theme across our work at WorldChanging, it is that we are far better served as a global civilization by actions and ideas that increase our ability to respond effectively, knowledgably, and sustainably to challenges that arise. In particular, I’ve focused on the value of openness as a means of worldchanging transformation: open as in free, transparent and diverse; open as in participatory and collaborative; open as in broadly accessible; and open as in choice and flexibility, as with the kind of future worth building — the open future.

Creating an open future requires foresight, to be sure, but it also requires that we embrace a way of looking at the world that emphasizes responsibility, caution and (perhaps paradoxically) a willingness to experiment. It requires that we recognize that the status quo is contingent, and that we can never be in full control of our environment. Even the most powerful among us live at the sufferance of the universe.

The tools that we depend upon to enable effective, knowledgable and sustainable responses are neither surprising nor obscure: information about the planet, its people and its systems; collaboration and cooperation among the world’s citizens; access to the means by which we expand our knowledge, feed our people, and cure our illnesses. Actions taken to restrict information, hinder collaboration, and centralize power in the hands of the few will, almost invariably, cut off our options. Actions we take that expand what we know, how well we work together, and how readily the people of the world can build their future, conversely, almost invariably increase the options we have for a better tomorrow.

As a planet, we face a handful of truly profound dilemmas taking shape in the first part of this century. It’s no exaggeration to say that the decisions we make about how to handle these dilemmas will make the difference between a flourishing of global civilization and a fate akin to extinction. And while there is a small variety of world-ending challenges that could emerge at any moment — from an asteroid impact to a naturally-emerging pandemic — the key dilemmas of this century are entirely in our hands.

The first, and most certain, is the threat from global climate disruption. The more we learn about the changes now taking place in our planet’s climate systems, the greater the challenge appears. We are unaccustomed to thinking about slow-moving problems with long lag times between actions and reactions; there is a real risk that the first serious efforts to cut carbon emissions will coincide with an acceleration of problems arising from decades-old changes to the atmosphere. Successful response to this challenge will require us to think in terms of big systems and long cycles far outside our every day experience.

The second, and as yet still incipient, is the impact of molecular nanotechnology. I’ve followed the development of this discipline for well over a decade, and our understanding of how self-replicating molecular engineering could be built is moving at a startlingly rapid pace. This may seem like an obscure concern, and it’s true that molecular nanotechnology is not nearly as immediate an issue as the other two challenges. But molecular nanotech is an enabling technology that can create enormous differences in economic, technological and military power between the haves and have-nots. I don’t fear a bolt-from-the-blue catastrophe like “grey goo” nearly as much as I worry about the race among nations to be the first to wield this technology and, as we’ve discussed here numerous times, there’s no reason why focused work in developing nations can’t come up with the necessary engineering breakthroughs. Students of political history know that periods where the balance of power shifts are often the most violent and dangerous…

Click here to read the entire essay at WorldChanging.